Handicapping the Oscars

Everything other than True Grit has been seen by everyone in the blog world, and so far, the race looks to be boiling down to The Social Network and The King's Speech. With roughly 3 months until the big night, studios will now start the campaigning and last ditch efforts to get their film seen by as many voters and critics as possible. Screeners for their films will be unleashed, and the most important questions is what film will critics avoid altogether? It will be a shame if they're turned off by Black Swan, which may turn out to be a critic's darling. The Academy tends to scoff at weirder Oscar buzz pictures, even though critics may praise them. A film like Mulholland Drive was a prime example when it came out in 2001.

Best Picture (the 10)

Locks:

The Social Network

The King's Speech

127 Hours

Black Swan

The Kids Are All Right

Inception 

Toy Story 3


Next in line
True Grit
The Fighter
Rabbit Hole
Blue Valentine
Get Low
Another Year
The Town


Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Danny Boyle (127 Hours)


Next in line
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right)
Debra Granik (Winter's Bone)

Best Actor
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)


Next in line
Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)


Best Actress
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)


Next in line
Tilda Swinton (I Am Love)
Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right)
Leslie Manville (Another Year)


Best Supporting Actor
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Matt Damon (True Grit)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)


Next in line
Justin Timberlake (The Social Network)
Bill Murray (Get Low)
Michael Douglass (Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps)
Sam Rockwell (Conviction)
Sean Penn (Fair Game)


Best Supporting Actress
Sissy Spacek (Get Low)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Barbara Hershey (Black Swan)
Helena BonhamCarter (The King's Speech)


Next in line
Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Haliee Steinfeld (True Grit)