Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
-Brokeback Mountain
-Crash
-Capote
-Good Night and Good Luck
-Munich
Preference-Crash
Prediction-Brokeback Mountain

At this point in the year Brokeback Mountain is simply unstoppable, garnering the most nominations(8), Brokeback has a lot going for itself, a controversial plot, a groundbreaking love story, 3 acting nominations, and a director that is familiar with the Academy, not to mention almost every other precursor award for best picture. The only chance for an upset would come from Crash, which is slowly but surely gaining strong momentum.

Best Director
-Ang Lee(Brokeback Mountain)
-Bennett Miller(Capote)
-Steven Spielberg(Munich)
-George Clooney(Good Night and Good Luck)
-Paul Haggis(Crash)
Preference-Ang Lee
Prediction-Ang Lee

Ang Lee's emotional portrait will award him best director, only threat comes from Clooney.

Best Actor
-Philip Seymour Hoffman(Capote)
-David Strathairn -(Good Night and Good Luck)
-Joaquin Pheonix(Walk the Line)
-Terrence Howard(Hustle & Flow)
-Heath Ledger(Brokeback Mountain)
Preference-Philip Seymour Hoffman
Prediction-Philip Seymour Hoffman

Although 2005 had it's fair share of great male performances, only Hoffman and Ledger have a shot here, the Academy loves giving the Oscar to newcomers that have been waiting for there shot i.e. Hoffman, this is his to lose. Look for Ledger to have the 2nd best shot due to Brokebacks success, but a slim one as Hoffman has taken awards season by storm with his career changing portrayal of author Truman Capote

Best Actress
-Reese Witherspoon(Walk the Line)
-Dame Judi Dench(Mrs. Henderson Presents)
-Keira Knightley(Pride and Prejudice)
-Felicity Huffman(Transamerica)
-Charlize Theron(North Country)
Preference-Reese Witherspoon
Prediction-Reese Witherspoon

One of the weakest classes ever for best actress will award Reese Witherspoon her first Oscar as her song and dance portrayal of June Carter, lifelong love of country music legend Johnny Cash.
Although many critics describe Reese as a shoe-in, don't be suprised if the desperate housewife herself, Felicity Huffman steals the award as a male-to-female transsexual in Transamerica.

Best Supporting Actor
-Matt Dillon(Crash)
-George Clooney(Syriana)
-Paul Giamatti(Cinderella Man)
-Jake Gyllenhaal(Brokeback Mountain)
-William Hurt(A History of Violence)
Preference-Jake Gyllenhaal
Prediction-Paul Giamatti

In the most competitive category this year, I believe that all 4 of the nominees could win the Oscar, except for Hurt who appeared in A History of Violence for 5 minutes, and somehow garnered a nomination. My preference Jake Gyllenhall will be ignored here because of his age, the Academy tends to shy away from giving the young ones the trophy, although Brokebacks success still gives him a tiny chance. Matt Dillon is one of the many great supporting actors in Crash, but he hasn't received any other precursor awards, only nominations. It comes down to Clooney and Giamatti, I think Giamatti wins it by the hair on his beard, as ringside trainer to legendary brawler James J. Braddock. Since Clooney is nominated for best original screenplay, supporting actor, and director, his best shot is winning here.

Best Supporting Actress
-Amy Adams(Junebug)
-Michelle Williams(Brokeback Mountain)
-Catherine Keener(Capote)
-Rachel Weisz(The Constant Gardener)
-Frances McDormand(North Country)
Preference(Rachel Weisz)
Predtion(Rachel Weisz)

It only makes sense to give it to Weisz here, as she won the Golden Globe and the Sag, playing activist Tessa, don't count out Williams, or Adams who would shock the world by winning.